Conjunction Fallacy


The tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than a more general version of those same conditions.


(Datasets labeled with this bias will go here.)

Structural Analysis:

(Results of dataset analysis for patterns in structure, placement, tone, context, coreference, correlatives, and so on will go here.)

Proposed Algorithms:

(Proposed combinations of factors from the above analyses in algorithmic form for automated detection will go here.)

Positive Detection:

(Algorithms for bias-positive detection will go here.)

False-positive Detection:

(Algorithms for false-positive detection/filtering of the above bias-positive algorithms will go here.)

Certainty Mapping:

(Algorithms for the probability mapping between N mathematical dimensions for positive and false-positive algorithms will go here.)

Successful Algorithms:

(Tested successful algorithms will go here, along with their respective accuracy metrics and error data for further refinement.)


  1. Gould, Stephen J. (1988). “The Streak of Streaks”. The New York Review of Books.
  2. Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1982) “Judgments of and by representativeness”.
  3. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  4. Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (October 1983). “Extension versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment”. Psychological Review. 90 (4): 293–315. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.90.4.293. Archived from the original on 2013-02-23.
  5. Kahneman, Daniel. (2000). “Evaluation by moments, past and future”. In Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (Eds.). Choices, Values and Frames.
  6. Kahneman, Daniel (2011). “Linda: Less is More”. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. pp. 156–165.
  7. Gigerenzer, Gerd (1996). “On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky”. Psychological Review. 103 (3): 592–596. CiteSeerX doi:10.1037/0033-295X.103.3.592.
  8. Hertwig, Ralph; Gigerenzer, Gerd (1999). “The ‘Conjunction Fallacy’ Revisited: How Intelligent Inferences Look Like Reasoning Errors”. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 12 (4): 275–305. CiteSeerX doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(199912)12:4<275::aid-bdm323>;2-d.
  9. Mellers, B.; Hertwig, R.; Kahneman, D. (2001). “Do frequency representations eliminate conjunction effects? An exercise in adversarial collaboration” (PDF). Psychological Science. 12 (4): 269–275. doi:10.1111/1467-9280.00350. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0025-957F-D. PMID 11476091.
  10. Moro, Rodrigo (2009). “On the nature of the conjunction fallacy”. Synthese. 171 (1): 1–24. doi:10.1007/s11229-008-9377-8.
  11. Tentori, Katya; Crupi, Vincenzo (2012). “On the conjunction fallacy and the meaning of and, yet again: A reply to
  12. Hertwig, Benz, and Krauss” (PDF). Cognition. 122 (2): 123–134. doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2011.09.002. PMID 22079517. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2016-05-10.
  13. Tentori, Katya; Bonini, Nicolao; Osherson, Daniel (2004). “The conjunction fallacy: a misunderstanding about conjunction?”. Cognitive Science. 28 (3): 467–477. doi:10.1207/s15516709cog2803_8.
  14. Wedell, Douglas H.; Moro, Rodrigo (2008). “Testing boundary conditions for the conjunction fallacy: Effects of response mode, conceptual focus, and problem type”. Cognition. 107 (1): 105–136. doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2007.08.003. PMID 17927971.
  15. Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos (1996). “On the reality of cognitive illusions”. Psychological Review. 103 (3): 582–591. CiteSeerX doi:10.1037/0033-295X.103.3.582. PMID 8759048.
  16. Oechssler, Jörg; Roider, Andreas; Schmitz, Patrick W. (2009). “Cognitive abilities and behavioral biases” (PDF). Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. 72 (1): 147–152. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2009.04.018.
  17. Charness, Gary; Karni, Edi; Levin, Dan (2010). “On the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment: New experimental evidence regarding Linda”. Games and Economic Behavior. 68 (2): 551–556. CiteSeerX doi:10.1016/j.geb.2009.09.003. hdl:10419/49905.
    “The Conjunction Fallacy”. Retrieved 2014-12-02.
  18. Gigerenzer, G. (1991). “How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond ‘heuristics and biases.'”. European Review of Social Psychology. 2 (1): 83–115. CiteSeerX doi:10.1080/14792779143000033.
    von Sydow, M. (2011). “The Bayesian Logic of Frequency-Based Conjunction Fallacies”. Journal of Mathematical Psychology. 55 (2): 119–139. doi:10.1016/